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Showing Our Work: The Real U.S. Oil Payoff in Venezuela, a Timeline

Showing Our Work: The Real U.S. Oil Payoff in Venezuela, a Timeline

The U.S. invasion of Venezuela was at least partly driven by oil, but not in the ways most people are talking about.

Top image: a detailed map illustrating the boundaries of the Guayana Esequiba region that Venezuela claims, with the geographical position of the Stabroek oil block, where ExxonMobil is drilling, distinctly marked. Source: SurinameCentral

Last week, I wrote about how U.S. oil majors are less interested in Venezuelan oil than they are in keeping the oil that’s offshore of Guyana (and Suriname for that matter) safe from the clutches of Venezuela. In the days since, I’ve been asked several times for more detail, which got me thinking about it even more. I especially wanted to better understand what happened between March 1, 2025, when Venezuela sent a naval ship to ExxonMobil’s floating offshore production vessel in Guyana and warned its staff that they were operating illegally, and September 2, 2025 when the U.S. first moved to strike a ship off Venezuela’s coast, claiming the attack was an attempt to stop drug cartels. And I wanted to know what was happening in the oil industry in the region from September 2025 until Maduro’s capture in early January 2026, too. So I did what I always do: the reading. And I pieced together a detailed timing, and then of course I got to thinking about how useful it might be to look at the more recent timeline in the context of the longer arc of the U.S. oil industry’s history in Venezuela, so I added some of those key dates as well.

I shared the resultant timeline with anyone asking for more information, and that got me thinking I may as well make it public, especially since it links to additional research (and even a transcription of the March 27th press conference Marco Rubio gave in Guyana, where he said in no uncertain terms that if Venezuela messed with Exxon, they would have the U.S. military to deal with.)

We spend a lot of time at Drilled documenting things and doing our homework and increasingly we find that showing and sharing that work can help other people—from readers to other reporters—who are trying to make sense of the timeline unfolding before us. We will continue to update this post as news breaks. So, without further ado, here it is!

A Detailed History of the U.S.-Venezuela-Guyana Oil Triangle

  • October 3, 1899 – Arbitration award fixes the boundary between Venezuela and British Guyana.
  • Jan 1900-Jan 10, 1905 - an Anglo-Venezuelan Boundary Commission identifies, demarcates and permanently fixes the boundary. On 10 January 1905, the Commissioners sign a Joint Declaration and accompanying maps in accordance with the 1899 Award.
  • 1913 – Standard Oil begins exploratory drilling in Venezuela.
  • 1922 – Royal Dutch Shell hits a major discovery. Foreign oil companies rush into Venezuela.
  • 1930s - By the 1930s, just three foreign companies—Gulf, Royal Dutch Shell, and Standard Oil—control 98 percent of the Venezuelan oil market.
  • 1943 – Venezuela passes the Hydrocarbons Law of 1943, requiring foreign oil companies to give half their oil profits to the state.
  • 1962 – Venezuela challenges the boundary set by the 1899 agreement with Guyana (at the time British Guyana).
  • Feb 17, 1966 – With Guyana about to gain independence, the UK and Venezuela sign the Geneva Agreement, addressing Venezuela’s claims that the 1899 award is null, establishing a Mixed Commission to determine the boundary and binding the Government of Venezuela and the Government of Guyana to resolve the territorial dispute or, if they cannot, to defer to the UN Secretary General.
  • May 26, 1966 – Guyana gains independence from the U.K. and joins the Geneva Agreement. Negotiations are held over the boundary dispute for four years without success, so it is deferred to the UN Secretary General. The UN Secretary General sets up what it calls a “Good Offices Process,” appointing a neutral third party to resolve the dispute. This process drags on for decades with no resolution.
  • 1976 - Venezuelan government moves to nationalize oil, creating a state-owned oil company and decreeing that it must hold 60% of all future oil projects (existing projects are left alone).
  • May 2, 2007 – Chavez decrees that all oil projects in Venezuela must be majority owned by the national oil company. Exxon and ConocoPhillips refuse and their assets are seized; Chevron agrees and stays in the country as a minority partner. Exxon begins exploring offshore Guyana, where it’s held an exploratory license since the late 1990s.
  • May 20, 2015 – Exxon announces a major oil find in Guyana.
  • May 26, 2015 – Maduro issues Presidential Decree 1.787 declaring all Atlantic waters off the Essequibo coast, and much of Guayana’s territory as Venezuelan.
  • Jan 30, 2018 – UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres concludes that the Good Offices Process has failed to produce a resolution of the territorial dispute and invokes Article IV(2) of the Geneva Agreement, referring the issue to the International Court of Justice.
  • March 29, 2018 – Guyana files a claim with the ICJ, asking the Court to resolve the controversy with Venezuela in accordance with international law. Specifically, Guyana asked the Court to determine the validity of the 1899 Arbitral Award and the resulting boundary between Guyana and Venezuela. Venezuela responds by challenging the jurisdiction of the Court to hear the case. They also argue that Guyana should not be extracting oil from disputed territory.
  • Dec 20, 2019 – Exxon produces first barrel of oil in Guyana.
  • January 2020 – Exxon ships first oil (1 million barrels) from Guyana.
  • December 2020 – ICJ rules that it does have jurisdiction over the Venezuela-Guyana border dispute, orders both parties to maintain status quo until it can issue a final ruling.
  • Dec 3, 2023 – Venezuela holds referendum to vote on whether Essequibo is part of Venezuela or not. Maduro claims 90% of Venezuelans voted yes.
  • Dec 7, 2023 – Maduro moves military to border and announces plans to build a base there and immediately begin drilling for oil offshore.
  • Dec 13, 2023 – Maduro moves to grant exploration and exploitation licenses for oil, gas and mining in the disputed area, via newly created companies: PDVSA Essequibo and CVG Essequibo. ExxonMobil reaffirms its commitment to stay in Guyana.
  • Dec 14. 2023 – Guyanese and Venezuelan leaders meet in St. Vincent and the Grenadines to discuss de-escalating the border dispute. They sign the Argyle Declaration, agreeing to diffuse tensions and wait for the ICJ to issue a final ruling.
  • Dec 24, 2023 – Guyana asks UK for a show of military support, it sends a warship.
  • Jan 2024 – Guayana asks US for help bolstering its military.
  • February 2024 – Exxon expands exploration north and west of its Stabroek block, into area Venezuela claims.
  • April 4, 2024 – Venezuela signs bill declaring the Essequibo region a Venezuelan state into law.
  • April 9, 2024 – UN Security Council convenes private meeting to discuss Venezuela-Guyana dispute as a potential threat to international peace and security.
  • Jan 2025 – Maduro announces upcoming elections for governor of new Venezuelan state,
  • March 1, 2025 – Venezuela sends a naval ship into the Stabroek Block and up to an Exxon floating offshore production vessel. The ship radios the vessel that they are illegally operating in Venezuela’s territory. The U.S. State Dept and Organization of American States, condemn this act of aggression and warn of consequences.
  • March 16, 2025 – Guyana expels 75 Venezuelans from Essequibo
  • March 24, 2025– Trump announces a 25% tariff on any country buying oil from Venezuela
  • March 25, 2025 - Trump administration’s special envoy for Latin America, Mauricio Claver-Carone, notes that Guyana is on the verge of becoming the largest per capita oil producer in the world, surpassing Qatar and Kuwait. “It’s seen as some of the greatest offshore opportunities in the world,” he tells reporters. “The security of Guyana is a key priority for us in the same way that we have been working with countries in the Gulf States to ensure the security cooperation from the regional threats there. We’ve seen the threats from Venezuela. We’ve seen the approaches towards Exxon facilities. Obviously, that’s unacceptable and we want to work together and find an agreement towards binding security cooperation.”
  • March 27, 2025 – Marco Rubio press conference in Guyana following signing of MoU on security between U.S. and Guyana. “ I wanna be frank, and I've said this during my time as a senator, and I have full confidence in saying it now, as the Secretary of State, there will be consequences for adventurism. There will be consequences for aggressive action…. you have a very difficult challenge on your hands with a dictator that's making illegitimate territorial claims. And so you have our full commitment and support today. And we will not allow illegitimate territorial claims to be an impediment to your dreams and to your right to develop this country.” When asked what the U.S. would do militarily if Venezuela were to attack Guyana or Exxon, Rubio responds: “ It would be a very bad day for the Venezuelan regime if it were to attack Guyana or attack ExxonMobil or anything, like, it would be a very bad day or a very bad week for them, and it would not end well for them. Um, I'm not gonna get into details of what we'll do, we're not big on those kinds of threats. I think everybody understands, and I want to be clear, we've made this clear repeatedly, I think the US Navy today is, is making it clear and demonstrating our ability to, um, uh, we, we have a, a big navy and it can get almost anywhere in it, can get anywhere in the world.”
  • In response, Maduro says: “The imbecile Marco Rubio comes out threatening Venezuela from Guyana. Venezuela can't be threatened by anyone because this is the homeland of the liberators.” At the same press conference, Maduro also denounces El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele, claiming that lawyers hired by Venezuela to represent those deported from the U.S. had not been allowed access to the prisons they were being detained in.
  • Later in the day on March 27, 2025 Rubio also visits Suriname, which is extracting from the same reservoir as Guyana. They discuss an energy partnership between U.S., Suriname and Guyana. “We are witnessing in the region how instability, poverty and security become contagious. But the opposite is true as well.” (similar to comments in Guyana). Again talks about making sure drugs and gangs never gain a foothold.
  • March 28, 2025 – US and Guyana conduct joint military maneuvers off the coast of Guyana.
  • April 8, 2025, Venezuela puts military on high alert after claims it has learned of a false flag operation against it: an attack planned against ExxonMobil platforms to accuse Venezuela of aggression it did not initiate.
  • April 17, 2025 – Guyana’s government lashes out at China for suggesting that it sit down with Venezuela and try to come to some sort of an agreement over the border dispute. Foreign ministry accuses China, with its vast investments in and close ties to Venezuela, of sitting on the fence as Venezuela has repeatedly harassed Guyana [a stark turn of events given that in 2022, when President Biden advised the Inter-American Development Bank not to approve a shore terminal in Guyana, Guyana criticized the move as hypocritical and got the investment instead from China].
  • May 2, 2025, International Court of Justice orders Venezuela to halt plans to elect a governor of [the Guyanese state] Essequibo, which Maduro had announced would be held later in the month.
  • May 25, 2025 – Venezuela moves forward with elections for governor of Essequibo.
  • July 18, 2025 – Chevron acquisition of Hess, bringing it into the Guyana partnership, is finalized.
  • July 31, 2025 – Trinidad and Tobago officially ends relationship with Venezuela for gas, saying it will get it from Guyana instead. “It has become very clear that we will have a strengthened alliance between the United States, Trinidad and Tobago, and other Caricom actors," energy minister Roodal Moonilal stated. [also interesting because gas has been a problem in Guyana – the oil there is gas-rich, and initially Exxon was just burning it off. After they started to be fined for flaring, they sold the Guyanese government on the idea of a gas project: Guyana built a pipeline and refinery, and in exchange Exxon gave them “free” gas…very clever way to get Guyana to pay for Exxon’s waste disposal. The problem was always that there’s far more gas than Guyana can possibly use, so being able to sell it to Trinidad and Tobago would certainly sweeten the deal.]
  • August 5th, 2025 - Trinidad and Tobago awards Exxon exploratory license for 7 deepwater offshore ocean blocks, northwest of the Stabroek block (this would be directly north of Venezuela and likely another murky boundary situation)
  • August 7, 2025 – Trump admin announces $50 million reward for any information leading to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, calling him "one of the largest narco-traffickers in the world".
  • August 11, 2025 – Exxon commences production at Yellowtail “One Guyana” floating offshore production platform in Guyana.
  • August 13, 2025 – Venezuela lodges a “strong protest” to Guyana that the new ExxonMobil vessel is in its territory.
  • August 19, 2025 - U.S. military deploys three guided-missile destroyers to the waters off Venezuela. It claims Maduro is the head of a drug trafficking network known as the "Cartel of the Suns" (Cartel de los Soles), an organization that doesn’t seem to formally exist outside of U.S. authorities referring to it since 2020.
  • August 22, 2025 – US deploys 4,000 troops to the southern Caribbean Sea, at the edge of Venezuela's territorial waters, in a purported anti-narcotics operation. Guyana publishes a communiqué on transnational crime and narcoterrorism. It explicitly mentions Cartel de los Soles. Rubio shares it on X.
  • August 23, 2025 – Maduro denounces U.S. military incursion in the Caribbean, and accuses Guyana of being a puppet of the U.S. and Exxon. “The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela firmly rejects the infamous communiqué issued by the Government of Guyana, a miserable text that reveals its condition as a pawn of dark imperial interests and ExxonMobil," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in an official statement.
  • Sept 1, Irfaan Ali is re-elected president of Guyana
  • Sept 2, 2025 - U.S. carried out its first strike against what Trump claimed was a drug-carrying vessel that departed from Venezuela and was operated by Tren de Aragua.
  • Sept 15, 2025 – US carries out second strike. Asked what proof the U.S. had that the vessel was carrying drugs, Trump told reporters that big bags of cocaine and fentanyl were spattered all over the ocean. Images of what Trump described were not released by the military or the White House.
  • Sept 19, 2025 - Trump said the U.S. military carried out its third fatal strike against an alleged drug-smuggling vessel.
  • Sept 22, 2025 - Exxon announces 7th oil project in Guyana.
  • Oct 2, 2025 - Trump declares drug cartels to be unlawful combatants and says the U.S. is now in an "armed conflict" with them
  • Oct 3, 2025 – Hegseth announces third strike on Venezuelan ships.
  • Oct 4, 2025 – At press conference, Venezuelan VP Delcy Rodríguez (also minister of hydrocarbons) accuses ExxonMobil of financing the Government of Guyana for a "military aggression" against Venezuelan territory.
  • October 2025 – Exxon and Guyana announce major increase in oil production.
  • Oct 14, 2025 - Trump announces the fifth strike against a small boat accused of carrying drugs, killing six people.
  • Oct 16, 2025 - Trump says the U.S. struck a sixth suspected drug-carrying vessel in the Caribbean, authorizes CIA operations in Venezuela.
  • Oct 29, 2025 – Venezuela demands details of Exxon’s offshore oil and gas exploration in Trinidad and Tobago. The request includes details about the location of the tests and whether any potential discoveries could extend into Venezuelan territory. This is three months after Trinidad’s decision to end its relationship with Venezuela and give an exploratory license to Exxon.
  • Nov 11, 2025 – Rystaad Energy says Exxon deal with Trinidad and Tobago could unlock $20 billion in profits.
  • Nov 16, 2025 - U.S. State Dept designates Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization.
  • December 4, 2025 – US ambassador to Guyana says U.S. military will defend Guyana in case of trouble with Venezuela. "In the event of an unfortunate incident, we pledge to stand by Guyana's side in defense of your country (...) to protect your sovereignty," Ambassador Nicole Theriot told AFP."You are very, very important to us strategically and you are very important to us as partners," she added.
  • Dec 11, 2025 – U.S. seizes oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. Guyana claims tanker filled with oil for China (which buys 80% of Venezuela’s oil) was falsely flying a Guyanese flag.
  • Dec 19, 2025 – Guyana oil production overtakes Venezuelan oil production for the first time.
  • Jan 3, 2026 – U.S. military bombs Caracas, kidnaps Maduro and his wife and takes them to New York to stand trial for drug charges.
  • Jan 5, 2026 – WSJ reports that Trump hinted about his plans to oil executives two weeks before the Jan 3rd
  • January 8, 2026 – Guayana lawyer in territory case tells press issue should calm down now that Maduro has been captured.
  • Jan 9, 2026 – Trump meets with U.S. oil execs about Venezuelan oil industry. Exxon CEO Darren Woods calls the Venezuelan oil fields “uninvestable.”
  • Jan 10, 2026 – Qatar says it will not invest in Venezuelan oil. They will focus their efforts on their new joint project with Total Energies in Guyana instead
  • Jan 12, 2026 – Business analysts say US involvement in Venezuela reduces risk for oil and gas projects in the region, particularly in Suriname and Guyana.
  • Jan 12, 2026 – Trump “threatens” to leave Exxon out of Venezuela after Woods’ comments.

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    Written By

    Amy Westervelt

    Amy Westervelt

    Amy is the executive editor of Drilled

    Date Written

    January 15, 2026Jan 15, 2026

    Tags

    Latin America + Caribbean
    Politics

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